The Pulse of Liberal Activism

2009 was supposed to be the year of marriage equality.  After Democrats took control of all three branches of the state government, leaders including Governor David Paterson promised to pass marriage equality.  However, Democrats had a very narrow majority of the Senate, a 32-30 split meant that just one Democratic defection would tie the Senate and create a gridlock.  Very quickly, Senator Ruben Diaz, an ordained reverend from the Bronx, took advantage of that, threatening to join with the Republicans and prevent the Senate from getting anything done if Democrats tried to hold a vote on gay marriage.  While this was resolved and he dropped his threat, it seemed that marriage equality might not come to a vote in the Senate at least until 2011.

Then, in a big surprise, soon after coming to an agreement on the state budget and passing it at the very beginning of December, marriage equality suddenly appeared on the Senate agenda.  In the day before the vote, the State Assembly passed the gay marriage bill by a huge margin in order to boost the prospects and momentum of what would be a historic act.  There were numerous very emotional speeches in favor of the bill, with only one exception, that of Ruben Diaz who once again spoke against the bill.  Normally, bills only come to a vote after the Senate leaders know it will pass, and considering the debate prior to the vote, the odds seemed very good.

But when the votes came in, all that changed.  First, Senator Joe Addabbo, from Queens, whom we had volunteered for and helped to elect in 2008 in a campaign supporting of marriage equality, voted “No”.  Apparently, he was spooked that his protege had just lost an election to a Republican, and thought voting for the bill might endanger his reelection campaign.  Then, Senator James Alesi, a Republican from Rochester, who was known to support gay rights but feared a primary challenge from conservative Republicans, voted “No”, as well.  The bill quickly sank, gathering only 24 Democratic votes, while no Republicans stood in favor of marriage equality.  8 Democrats even voted against the bill: Diaz, Addabbo, Darrell Aubertine (North Country), Shirley Huntley (Queens), Carl Kruger (Brooklyn), Hiram Monserrate (Queens), George Onorato (Queens), and Bill Stachowski (Buffalo).

If we want marriage equality in 2011, we’ll need to flip 8 votes to support the bill.  Onorato is planning on retiring and will likely be replaced by a supporter of marriage equality.  Stachowski and Monserrate are facing primary challenges from supporters of marriage equality, and that leaves 6 votes left.  We’re starting with Joe Addabbo, and working to gain those 6 votes in support of marriage equality.

Greetings fellow depressed and angry Dems,

Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com had a great piece last fall about the Democratic senators representing states that McCain won in November 2008. Of these thirteen senators, only two are up for reelection in 2010: Blanche Lincoln (AR) and Byron Dorgan (ND). These two seats are the focus of our post this week.

North Dakota: Open (D)

Dorgan announced in January that he would not seek reelection in the fall. While no democratic candidate has announced their intentions to run thus far, there is speculation that the former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp will run. She faces tough competition in North Dakotan Governor John Hoeven. Current polls have her down 21 points. However, these polls are premature considering neither party has started to spend significant amounts of money in the race and the primary isn’t until June 8.

Heitkamp was Attorney General from 1993 to 2000 when she lost a gubernatorial bid to Hoeven. Her biggest achievement in office was contributing to a multi-state lawsuit against the tobacco industry. Hoeven, meanwhile, sports an 87% approval rating after nearly a decade as governor, the highest of any governor in the United States.

It doesn’t look good for the great state of North Dakota.

Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln (D)

With her latest approval ratings at 27%, the Democrats chances look almost as bleak in Arkansas. Lincoln has not been able to connect with any portion of the voting electorate, having only 51% of her party’s support, 17% of independents, and just 9% of Republicans. It appears here initial resistance to health care reform and her continued berating of the public option has gotten her no where politically (shocking). The one possible advantage that the Democrats have in Arkansas is that the Republican primary is shaping up to be a brutal fight, which could enable Lincoln to solidify her support amongst her own party and try to make inroads with independents before the GOP has a candidate. In fact, there are 9 announced candidates in the Republican primary, including the vice-chair of the Washington County Tea Party (WOW). In any case, it is still unlikely that the Dems will hold on to this seat, but there does seem to be a slight glimmer of hope here, unlike in North Dakota.

These two feisty liberals are very sad to report on these two states today, but hopefully with an economy turning around and more impressive Democratic legislation to come in the next few months, the tide will be turned and the Dems will retain these two states.

Next Week: Obama’s Old Seat! Illinois.

I don’t always get political, but when I do I prefer the Democrats. Stay liberal my friends.

Hey fellow Dems,

Welcome to Election Watch 2010 with your lovely board members Matt and Bridgit! Every Thursday, we will be taking a look at upcoming Senate races across the country, aiming to give all our members an idea of how the elections and our nation will be shaping up in the coming years. We’re going to kick off our weekly series by tackling our local race, Senator Gillibrand’s reelection fight.

Gillibrand came into the Senate via gubernatorial appointment to fill now Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s vacant seat. Prior to becoming a senator, Gillibrand served New York’s 20th District in the House of Representatives. Since joining the Senate, she has been a fierce advocate for President Obama’s progressive policies, and has taken the lead on repealing the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” law, an issue of significant importance to these two authors. Although she has suffered from low poll numbers (only 24% of registered voters in the state give her good or excellent marks), she is still very much the favorite to win reelection, thanks to serving a heavily Democratic leaning state and a weak collection of Republican challengers. In addition, being that she has only been a Senator for two years, her name recognition is still quite low (25% of voters in the same poll had never heard of her), and her popularity is expected to rise as she gains a stronger reputation and has more experience.

This election is the first big challenge for Gillibrand, being that she was appointed by Governor Paterson and therefore must be reelected by the people this year. Her appointment was contentious, being that big name New York liberals such as Caroline Kennedy and Andrew Cuomo were thought to have wanted the seat. Paterson’s decision to choose Gillibrand led to much anger initially in the party, possibly contributing to her low poll numbers, and even leading some to believe that she would have an intense primary fight. However, the White House and the Democratic Party has pressured potential primary challengers to drop out of the race, leaving the path to the general election open for Gillibrand. Due to President Obama’s public support for her, the only potential competition is Harold Ford, Jr., who is mulling the possibility of running. Nonetheless, it is widely expected that she will win the primary and proceed with the party’s support in the general election (recent polls have her leading Ford by as much as 25 points).

The Republican Party has yet to have any candidates formally announce their intentions to the challenge Gillibrand. Her possible general election opponents include former New York governor George Pataki and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, but both men have alluded to the fact that they have no interest in challenging her. Until they do pick a candidate, it is difficult to imagine Senator Gillibrand having too tough of a time retaining her seat, especially because she has the President’s support, who won New York with a whopping 63% of the vote in 2008.

Next Week: We take a look at the two Democratic seats held in McCain states — North Dakota and Arkansas.

I don’t always get political, but when I do, I prefer the Democrats. Stay liberal my friends.

liveblogged by Kate O’Gorman

Hey folks!

We’ve got a room full of people, starting to get excited about the state of union. Some people have wandered in wearing their vintage 2008 Obama for President t-shirts but regardless of how people are dressed, the largest room in our student center is filled to the brim with people waiting for the address.

I hadn’t realized that the State of the Union was an event that you went early to, but 25 minutes before show time and there are no seats in the house. There is also no more pizza, and in this Dem’s opinion the new Dominos recipe isn’t much better than the last.

(9:05) We always know that Republicans tend to follow the trend rather than lead them. Now, following Nancy Pelosi’s lead today, the Republicans are responding to the State of the Union before the speech even starts. Seems sort of like a preemptive response, but perhaps they’ll argue that it was, in fact, preventative.

(9:06) The floor, and the Columbia Satow room, breaks out in applause as President Obama is announced. Now… we’ll take a 20 minute applause break as we take a moment to watch Obama shake the hands of 535 people…

(9:11) President Obama is starting his speech – took a lot less time than I thought it might!

(9:16) “the numbing weight of our politics.” Thank you to President Obama for reminding us of the common goals and hopes that we have regardless of our politics. In my own discussions with Republicans, it isn’t as though we aren’t working for a better American future. We just have different ways to get there. Please, Congress, remember that as well.

(9:17) “It is time the American government gets a government that matches their decency”…. Biden was a little too enthusiastic on the clapping there. So was the rest of the Columbia watch party. I think that the room may be more entertained by Vice-President Biden than the speech.

(9:25) Job must be our #1 focus – gets the first standing ovation from both sides of the asile tonight. We should start in new small businesses (this means we need health care folks…)

(9:30) Second bipartisan standing ovation – take tax credits. Then ensued the House vs. Senate cheering contest. Despite their lower numbers, I’d say the Senate wins (Can we get that kind of enthusiasm for passing legislation?).

(9:32) I will not accept second place for the United States of America (Preview of the olympics?). Slowing down policy only allows other countries to catch up, Obama argues. Moves quickly to the dire need of financial reform. House has passed it, Senate now needs to pass it. I can’t think of a more important issue right now.

(9:36) “and I know that there are those who disagree with the overwhelming scientific evidence on climate change. But even if you doubt the evidence, providing incentives for energy efficiency and clean energy are the right thing to do for our future – because the nation that leads the clean energy economy will be the nation that leads the global economy. And America must be that nation.” Loudest cheer from Columbia thus far erupts in the Satow room

(9:42) “And let’s tell another one million students that when they graduate, they will be required to pay only ten percent of their income on student loans, and all of their debt will be forgiven after twenty years – and forgiven after ten years if they choose a career in public service.” As may be expected from a college watch party, we had our first group of people standing up this year.

(9:45) First Lady Obama tells everyone to “Sit Down.” President Obama says she gets embarrassed.

(9:48) This room is wondering why the Republicans give a standing ovation when Obama solicits other strategies to health care reform. Have they proposed a plan yet?

(9:51) Announces 3 year budget freeze. No more tax cuts for those making over $250,000 a year.

(9:54) In the general theme of Obama laying down the law on the Senate, Obama announces an executive commission that the Senate has said no to

(9:57) “To do that, we have to recognize that we face more than a deficit of dollars right now. We face a deficit of trust – deep and corrosive doubts about how Washington works that have been growing for years. To close that credibility gap we must take action on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue to end the outsized influence of lobbyists; to do our work openly; and to give our people the government they deserve.”

(10:01) New title for the State of the Union: Senate Smackdown

(10:03) “Just saying no to everything may be good short-term politics, but it’s not leadership. We were sent here to serve our citizens, not our ambitions. So let’s show the American people that we can do it together.”

(10:12) Aside from Columbia school policy, some people are wondering why they didn’t find the State of the Union drinking game before we showed up…

(10:14) Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. It’s time to end it.

(10:18) “But I also know this: if people had made that decision fifty years ago or one hundred years ago or two hundred years ago, we wouldn’t be here tonight. The only reason we are is because generations of Americans were unafraid to do what was hard; to do what was needed even when success was uncertain; to do what it took to keep the dream of this nation alive for their children and grandchildren.”

(10:20) “We are strong. We are resilient. We are American.”

Republican Response:

Just for transparency’s sake: the Columbia University College Democrats really don’t like Bob McDonnell. He broke our undefeated record in our campaign trips as we campaigned for Creigh Deeds this semester. So, we really dislike him.

(10:34) “We want cooperation, not partisanship.” Pardon me, but I think that the Democrats have been calling for bipartisanship the whole time…

(10:35) “the GOP welcomes your ideas on facebook and twitter.” Thank you to the GOP for asking for ideas…. as long as you can fit them in 140 characters

(10:37) “A child’s educational opportunity should be determined by her intellect and work ethic, not by her zip code.”

(10:40) “Here at home government must help foster a society in which all our people can use their God-given talents in liberty to pursue the American Dream. Republicans know that government cannot guarantee individual outcomes, but we strongly believe that it must guarantee equality of opportunity for all”

The crowd here wonders if that was Governor McDonnell’s normal speech writer. It did not seem to carry the cadence he normally does. All in all, however, good speech.

- That’s all folks!

The Activist Council is leading the charge in fundraising for Haiti. Lead by Activist Sarah Gitlin, AC is distributing and collecting donation bins to vendors all over New York City and donating the funds raised to Doctors without Borders! So far, we’ve collected over $2,000.  Join the campaign and do your part by volunteering to solicit donations on the street or help with collecting and distributing more bins!