Columbia University Democrats

Greetings fellow depressed and angry Dems,

Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com had a great piece last fall about the Democratic senators representing states that McCain won in November 2008. Of these thirteen senators, only two are up for reelection in 2010: Blanche Lincoln (AR) and Byron Dorgan (ND). These two seats are the focus of our post this week.

North Dakota: Open (D)

Dorgan announced in January that he would not seek reelection in the fall. While no democratic candidate has announced their intentions to run thus far, there is speculation that the former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp will run. She faces tough competition in North Dakotan Governor John Hoeven. Current polls have her down 21 points. However, these polls are premature considering neither party has started to spend significant amounts of money in the race and the primary isn’t until June 8.

Heitkamp was Attorney General from 1993 to 2000 when she lost a gubernatorial bid to Hoeven. Her biggest achievement in office was contributing to a multi-state lawsuit against the tobacco industry. Hoeven, meanwhile, sports an 87% approval rating after nearly a decade as governor, the highest of any governor in the United States.

It doesn’t look good for the great state of North Dakota.

Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln (D)

With her latest approval ratings at 27%, the Democrats chances look almost as bleak in Arkansas. Lincoln has not been able to connect with any portion of the voting electorate, having only 51% of her party’s support, 17% of independents, and just 9% of Republicans. It appears here initial resistance to health care reform and her continued berating of the public option has gotten her no where politically (shocking). The one possible advantage that the Democrats have in Arkansas is that the Republican primary is shaping up to be a brutal fight, which could enable Lincoln to solidify her support amongst her own party and try to make inroads with independents before the GOP has a candidate. In fact, there are 9 announced candidates in the Republican primary, including the vice-chair of the Washington County Tea Party (WOW). In any case, it is still unlikely that the Dems will hold on to this seat, but there does seem to be a slight glimmer of hope here, unlike in North Dakota.

These two feisty liberals are very sad to report on these two states today, but hopefully with an economy turning around and more impressive Democratic legislation to come in the next few months, the tide will be turned and the Dems will retain these two states.

Next Week: Obama’s Old Seat! Illinois.

I don’t always get political, but when I do I prefer the Democrats. Stay liberal my friends.