Dems,

Welcome to Election Watch 2010: Spring Break edition! This is Freshman Rep Matt reporting from beautiful Southern California, where it is a balmy 81 degrees (go ahead and hate me). Today we will be examining the convoluted race for Arlen Specter’s seat in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania, as of late, has been trending towards the Democratic Party. It went for Obama with over 54% of the vote in 2008, and currently has a Democratic Governor and two Democratic Senators. In addition, the state’s House of Representatives is controlled by the Democrats, although the state Senate is controlled by the Republicans. Nonetheless, one must take Pennsylvania as a place where Democrats would be favored, especially since the state has not voted for a Republican Presidential candidate since 1988. Despite these positive signs, many political observers have labeled this seat as a toss-up, one that the Republicans could easily snag.

This reason that this race is so interesting is because no one is quite sure what to make of Arlen Specter, the incumbent. He was first elected to the Senate in 1980 as a Republican, and is currently serving his fifth term in office. Although he identified as a Republican, his liberal views on abortion, immigration, and the environment kept him out of the conservative wing, and he was widely known as a moderate. In April of 2009, Specter, fresh of his controversial vote to support the $800 billion stimulus plan, switched parties to become a Democrat, giving the party its coveted 60th vote. Since then, Specter has voted fairly consistently with his new party, although he retains his Republican ideals with regards to gun rights and foreign policy. In appreciation for his switch to the Democrats, Specter is now endorsed by President Obama, Vice-President Biden, Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Only one Democrat has mounted a serious primary challenge to Specter, and that is Representative Joe Sestak. Sestak, however, has yet to make a serious move up the polls, and has consistently trailed Specter by at least 15 points. When the primary comes on May 18, it is highly unlikely Sestak will be able to take Specter down.

The Republican side of this election is almost as bland. Four people have formally declared for the race, but the frontrunner at this point is Pat Toomey, a former Congressman who almost defeated Specter in the 2004 Republican primary, losing by only 1.7% of the vote. He is virtually a lock to win the nomination from his party, and no polling has been done to put him against other Republican candidates. It is when Toomey is put against Specter that the race becomes exciting. Polls have shown the race sliding back and forth as of late, and it seems that national political feeling is almost dictating the race. Specter’s age and health has become a factor in the race, as he is 80 years old and has revealed that he is fighting Hodgkin’s disease. Specter and Toomey have already begun fighting each other on the airwaves, with Specter attacking Toomey’s support for deregulation and other deep conservative values.

There is no question that this is going to be an interesting race, considering Specter and Toomey have gone at it before. However, if Specter can prevail with just Republicans voting, one must assume that he has a good chance with his own (albeit new) party voting in addition. If Specter is able to harness his popularity as moderate and swing votes from Republican voters, he should be able to win handily. We can only hope.

Next Week: Missouri (Can Democrats grab a Red Seat for themselves?)

I don’t always get political, but when I do, I prefer the Democrats. Stay liberal my friends.