Columbia University Democrats

My dearest Dems,

Welcome back to Election Watch 2010 with Matt and Bridgit! Today were a taking a look at the great state of California, Matt’s home state and one of the most liberal-leaning in the United States. Currently, California is home to two Democratic senators, the most liberal Republican governor in the nation, and Democratic majorities in both the State Assembly and State Senate. However, due to recent political feeling, Republicans and pollsters alike have claimed that this state could elect a GOP candidate to national office.

The Senate seat up for grabs here currently belongs to Barbara Boxer, a three-term incumbent who was the second female Jewish Senator ever elected. Boxer is originally from Brooklyn, and her first career was as a stockbroker. Boxer moved to California in the late 1960s, and first ran for political office in 1972, losing a close election for Marin County Supervisor. She won her first election in 1976 to that very position, and moved on to the House of Representatives in 1982, representing a Northern California district. Eventually, she ran for the Senate in 1992, filling an open seat vacated by Democrat Alan Cranston, winning by 5 points. Boxer was reelected in 1998 by 10 points, and in 2004 by 20. Unfortunately, her approval ratings have since fallen in the state, with a current Survey USA poll showing that 47% of Californians disapprove of her (compared to 41% approval).

The Democratic primary is not a serious one, as Boxer has the full support of both the state and national party. The Republican side, however, is hotly contested. Three candidates have basically split primary support, those being Tom Campbell, Carly Fiorina, and Chuck DeVore. Campbell is a former U.S. Representative from Northern California, and he has a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago and a J.D. from Harvard Law School. Campbell is liberal on social issues but is quite conservative when it comes to economic policy. He voted no on Proposition 8, and maintains a strong libertarian following. Fiorina is the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and a former McCain 2008 economic strategist. She has never run for political office, and her first and only foray into the field was with the McCain campaign, which ungraciously dumped her after a few ill-advised comments. DeVore is a member of the California State Assembly representing Orange County. DeVore served in the Reagan administration in the Department of Defense, and has served in the National Guard since 1985.

Current polling has shown this race to be quite close. The Republican primary currently has Campbell with a slight lead, but he and Fiorina are within single percentage points of each other. DeVore has been running a distant third the entire time, whereas Campbell and Fiorina keep switching off in the top spot. When Boxer is placed against these candidates, the race becomes closer than one might expect. Against Campbell, the most recent polls have them in a statistical tie, with Boxer holding a 2 point advantage. Against Fiorina, Boxer is up by 4. Finally, against DeVore, Boxer is only up by 3. So no matter who takes the Republican primary, Boxer will be in for a tough fight.

Californians have been very reluctant to elect Republicans to national office in statewide elections, not having done it since 1988. However, this political climate has made it appear possible for a moderate Republican to take the seat. Nevertheless, with 10% still undecided, Democrats have reason to feel confident that this three-term incumbent will have a good chance to stay in the chamber.

Next Week: Our final post of the semester! We take a look at Indiana, where retiring Evan Bayh leaves a seat ripe for GOP picking… or is it?

I don’t always get political, but when I do, I prefer the Democrats. Stay liberal my friends.